Every listing from three years of Bright MLS records, month by month, by price and by county. And one REALTOR’s rule of thumb, put to the test.
March: 58% of listings sold over asking· Crosspointe Drive, Fairfax Station
Month figures: homes listed 2023 to 2025. Pictures are artist’s renderings of real streets.
Published October 8, 202670,875 listings, Bright MLS, 2023 to 2025About a 10-minute read
Quick answer
List in February or March. Of the Northern Virginia homes listed in those months from 2023 to 2025, 57% to 58% sold over the original asking price, in a median of 5 days, and only about 12% had to cut the price. Summer listings, June to August, did worse: 38% to 46% sold over asking, 20% to 24% cut the price and about one in five never sold. Buyers get the most room to negotiate on homes listed from August to October. Homes of $2 million and up are slow in every season, but they also did best when listed from January to March.
Homes listed from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2025, Bright MLS
70,875 houses and townhouses listed in Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William and Arlington counties and the cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas and Manassas Park: 58,570 sold and 12,305 did not. Condos are not included.
The verdict
The usual advice is to sell in spring and buy in winter. Northern Virginia’s own records say the best weeks to list start earlier than most sellers think, and the pattern held in 2023, 2024 and 2025 alike.
If you are selling
Those listings sold over asking most often, in the shortest time and with among the fewest price cuts. From May on, more homes compete for the same buyers, and by August 24% of listings were cutting the price, about twice the share in February and March.
If you are buying
Homes listed in those months had the most price cuts (23% to 24%), and only 35% to 38% sold over asking. Winter is cheaper per square foot, by about 3% for January closings, but with the fewest homes to choose from.
If your home is $2M or more
The top of the market is slow in every season: a median 22 to 27 days, and 44% to 50% of listings never sold. But January to March was still its best window, at 98.1% of the original asking price against 96.4% for July to September.
Month by month
Each hour on the clock is a month. The color shows how many homes listed that month sold for more than their original asking price: red for bidding wars, blue for a buyer’s month.
| Month listed | Homes listed | Sold over asking | Median days to sell | Cut the price | Never sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 4,021 | 50% | 6 | 12% | 15% |
| February | 4,872 | 57% | 5 | 12% | 14% |
| March | 7,282 | 58% | 5 | 13% | 14% |
| April | 8,029 | 56% | 6 | 15% | 15% |
| May | 8,602 | 49% | 6 | 19% | 16% |
| June | 7,404 | 46% | 7 | 20% | 19% |
| July | 6,524 | 42% | 7 | 22% | 19% |
| August | 5,816 | 38% | 8 | 24% | 21% |
| September | 6,511 | 37% | 9 | 24% | 20% |
| October | 5,701 | 35% | 10 | 23% | 20% |
| November | 3,704 | 36% | 9 | 18% | 18% |
| December | 2,409 | 36% | 7 | 14% | 17% |
Why not May? May brings more new listings than any other month, 12.1% of the year’s, so a seller competes with the most other homes. The buyers are there too, but they have more to choose from. In February and March fewer homes come on the market, 6.9% and 10.3% of the year’s new listings, and more than half of them sold over asking.
The slow stretch. August to October listings did worst: the most price cuts, the most homes that never sold, and among the fewest sales over asking. About one in five summer and fall listings expired, was withdrawn or was canceled.
By price
Under $1 million, the early-year advantage is strongest: more than half of those homes sold over asking. Above $1.5 million, the market is slower in every season, and the season matters less than the price.
| Asking price | Listed Jan–Mar | Listed Apr–Jun | Listed Jul–Sep | Listed Oct–Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under $750K | 62%5 days10% cut9% unsold | 59%6 days15% cut12% unsold | 44%7 days21% cut15% unsold | 40%8 days18% cut14% unsold |
| $750K to $1M | 57%5 days13% cut12% unsold | 50%6 days20% cut16% unsold | 37%8 days26% cut19% unsold | 34%8 days21% cut18% unsold |
| $1M to $1.5M | 49%6 days14% cut17% unsold | 43%6 days21% cut18% unsold | 34%8 days23% cut21% unsold | 32%7 days17% cut20% unsold |
| $1.5M to $2M | 38%7 days19% cut24% unsold | 34%8 days24% cut27% unsold | 31%12 days26% cut29% unsold | 24%15 days24% cut29% unsold |
| $2M and up | 19%22 days25% cut44% unsold | 18%23 days30% cut44% unsold | 14%27 days29% cut49% unsold | 16%27 days22% cut50% unsold |
The best quarter in each row is outlined: the highest share of the original asking price, then the most sales over asking. Price ranges use the original asking price.
By county
Loudoun does not move like Arlington, but the season moves them the same way. In every county, homes listed January to March sold over asking most often.
Listed Jan–Mar: 12% cut the price and 14% never sold. Listed Jul–Sep: 23% and 20%.
Listed Jan–Mar: 14% cut the price and 15% never sold. Listed Jul–Sep: 22% and 20%.
Listed Jan–Mar: 12% cut the price and 12% never sold. Listed Jul–Sep: 25% and 18%.
Listed Jan–Mar: 14% cut the price and 22% never sold. Listed Jul–Sep: 24% and 27%.
Listed Jan–Mar: 13% cut the price and 14% never sold. Listed Jul–Sep: 21% and 19%.
Townhouses sold faster in every season. Listed Jan–Mar: 11% of townhouses never sold, against 16% of houses.
The school bell
Ahmed has long told sellers with children to list between March and July, so the family can buy, move and settle before school starts. The numbers back March through June. July is cutting it close.
Closings by month
Share of each year’s closed sales, 2023 to 2025
Closings peak in May and June, 11.3% and 11.1% of the year’s sales, then ease toward school. From listing to closing, the median home took 35 days in March and 39 in July: a few days to find a buyer, then about a month to settle.
What waiting costs
Prices follow the seasons. They dip in midwinter and peak with the spring closings, while the number of homes to choose from swings far more.
Price per square foot, by month closed
Houses Townhouses
Each month’s median price per finished square foot above ground, against that year’s median, averaged over 2023 to 2025.
New listings, by month
Share of each year’s new listings, 2023 to 2025
May brings 3.6 times as many new listings as December.
Waiting for winter
About 3% less per square foot for January closings, but December brings only 3.4% of the year’s new listings. Good for a buyer who knows exactly what they want.
Waiting for late summer
Spring prices still hold, but far more sellers will negotiate: 23% to 24% of August to October listings cut the price. Good for a buyer who wants choice and leverage.
How it was done
Most timing studies count sales by the month they closed, which mixes spring contracts into summer. This one follows each home from the month it was listed, including the homes that never sold.
Questions
March, with February and April close behind. Of the homes listed in March from 2023 to 2025, 58% sold for more than the original asking price, in a median of 5 days, and only 13% had to cut the price. In August the same figures were 38%, 8 days and 24%.
Each has its advantage. Homes that closed in January sold for about 3% less per square foot than the year's median, but December brings only 3.4% of the year's new listings, so there is less to choose from. Late summer and fall bring more choice and more room to negotiate: 23% to 24% of homes listed from August to October cut their price, and only 35% to 38% sold over asking.
Yes, a little slower and with more price cuts. Homes listed from June to August sold in a median of 7 to 8 days against 5 for March, 20% to 24% cut the price, and 19% to 21% never sold, roughly one in five.
Fairfax County Public Schools open on August 23, 2027. Three in four homes listed in June closed within 56 days, so list by about June 28, 2027 to close in time with good odds. The median July listing took 39 days, so a listing after July 15 will more often than not close after school starts.
January to March. Homes asking $2 million and up are slow in every season, a median 22 to 27 days, and 44% to 50% of them never sold. But those listed January to March sold for 98.1% of the original asking price (median), against 96.4% for July to September.
Only a little, and they come back each spring. Price per square foot for homes that closed in January ran about 3% below the year's median, and homes that closed in May about 2 to 3% above it, from 2023 to 2025. That is the season, not a falling market.
Your next step
Tell me when you need to move. I answer in English or Arabic, with real numbers, not a pitch.
دليل شمال فرجينيا · دراسة السوق
درسنا 70,875 منزلاً، بين منزل مستقل ومنزل متلاصق («تاون هاوس»)، من دون الشقق، عُرضت للبيع بين 1 يناير 2023 و31 ديسمبر 2025، بحسب سجلات «برايت إم إل إس». والنتيجة أن المنازل التي عُرضت في فبراير ومارس حققت أفضل النتائج: بِيع ما بين 57 و58 في المئة منها بسعر أعلى من السعر المطلوب، وكانت المدة الوسطية للبيع 5 أيام، ولم يُخفَّض السعر إلا في نحو 12 في المئة منها.
أما المنازل التي عُرضت في الصيف، من يونيو إلى أغسطس، فكانت نتائجها أضعف: بِيع ما بين 38 و46 في المئة منها بسعر أعلى من المطلوب، وخُفِّض السعر في ما بين 20 و24 في المئة منها، ولم يُبَع نحو منزل واحد من كل خمسة. وأمام المشترين أكبر فرصة للتفاوض على المنازل التي تُعرض بين أغسطس وأكتوبر. أما المنازل التي يبلغ سعرها مليوني دولار أو أكثر، فبيعها أبطأ في كل المواسم، لكنها هي أيضاً حققت أفضل نتائجها حين عُرضت بين يناير ومارس.
ولمن يريد الانتقال قبل بدء العام الدراسي: تفتح مدارس مقاطعة فيرفاكس أبوابها في 23 أغسطس 2027، وقد اكتمل بيع ثلاثة من كل أربعة منازل عُرضت في يونيو خلال 56 يوماً من عرضها، لذا يُستحسن عرض المنزل للبيع قبل نحو 28 يونيو 2027.
وكيلك العقاري الموثوق في شمال فرجينيا.
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